标题: 外媒:美国遭受的真正“冲击”不是中国 而是 [打印本页] 作者: 中国日报网 时间: 2025-6-9 04:30 标题: 外媒:美国遭受的真正“冲击”不是中国 而是 美国杂志Reason6月5日文章，原题：与中国贸易并不会摧毁美国经济（No, Trade With China Did Not Kill the US Economy）
Winship contends that the negative effects of trade with China have been significantly exaggerated and that populist narratives blaming this trade for US economic decline aren't supported by rigorous evidence.
Winship gives the example of two hypothetical commuting zones with 200,000 working-age residents and 20,000 manufacturing workers. Data from the theory's proponents indicate that moving from low (10th percentile) to high (90th percentile) exposure to Chinese imports would result in a loss of roughly 2,700 manufacturing jobs—just a 1.4-percentage-point drop in overall manufacturing employment.
这样的数据不足以解释归咎于中国的社区衰退、社会动荡和民粹主义反弹。
This does not convincingly explain the community decline, social disruption, and populist backlash often blamed specifically on Chinese trade.
Further research revealed that job losses in exposed areas were often offset or even outweighed by employment gains in other sectors. Firms with greater Chinese import exposure increased manufacturing employment, reallocating jobs to more efficient domestic production lines enabled by cheaper imports.
Moreover, the steady decline in US manufacturing employment began decades before China's WTO entry. Between the late 1970s and 2000, factory employment had already decreased substantially, mostly because of technological advances and shifting consumer demand.
Furthermore, former manufacturing workers generally did not face permanent unemployment. In fact, unemployment rates among this group were lower in recent years compared to the late 1990s, before the peak of Chinese imports. Many workers transitioned successfully into other sectors.
解决之道不是孤立和关税，而是让美国工人适应变化（empower US workers to adapt to economic changes）。
经济学家指出，工人未能从冲击中恢复，往往是因为政府设置了重重障碍，导致他们难以调整。
Economists have shown that to the extent that workers sometimes don't recover from shocks, it tends to be a failure to adjust because of obstacles erected by government.
该文章总结出核心观点：中国进口对美国制造业的影响实际上非常有限（limited role Chinese imports have played in manufacturing-employment trend）。
The real "shock" America faces in 2025 is not from Chinese imports but from a resurgence of misguided protectionism based on a misdiagnosed problem. The path forward harnesses trade's real benefits rather than chasing economic illusions.